Published on May 21, 2024 · Reading time 3 minutes · Created by Fyde Labs
When markets are volatile, rebalancing becomes more crucial. This applies to traditional markets, like US large-cap equities with average annualized volatility of 15–16%, but even more so in crypto, where volatility can reach 100% annually. One of the most underestimated drivers of returns in managing a crypto portfolio is how you decide to rebalance.
As we discussed in our blog post “To Drift…or Not to Drift?,” an average altcoin portfolio that rebalances to a benchmark (like ETH) tends to outperform portfolios that don’t rebalance.
Without rebalancing, you’re essentially riding the wave up and then back down without locking in gains. Volatility—the silent killer of returns—can significantly diminish portfolio performance over time.
As market conditions fluctuate, portfolio assets drift from their target allocations, necessitating periodic rebalancing. Here, we’ll examine two common rebalancing strategies: rebalancing to ETH and rebalancing to underweight tokens.
Rebalancing to ETH is a common strategy that can lock in gains across market cycles. By selling assets when they rally, you maintain concentration limits, ensuring you capture profits while ETH acts as a more stable base during downturns.
Example:
We evaluated three rebalancing thresholds—1.05x, 2.0x, and 2.5x. This means, for a token starting at 10% of the portfolio, rebalancing occurs if it hits 10.5%, 20%, or 25% of portfolio value. A 5% trade cost was applied to simulate live trading conditions.
Results show that selling to buy ETH sooner yields higher cumulative returns than waiting for a larger price increase.
If you believe in mean reversion, rebalancing to underweight tokens allows you to capture potential gains as tokens recover. Given crypto’s sentiment-driven nature, even “dead” projects can surge during rallies.
However, not all small-cap tokens perform well. Many are pump-and-dump schemes with no recovery potential. For our analysis, we filtered tokens by liquidity and market cap to target those with staying power.
Our analysis shows that rebalancing to underweight tokens, particularly at a low threshold, can lead to substantial returns. However, returns diminish quickly as the rebalancing threshold increases. This is a faster drop-off than in the ETH rebalancing strategy, underscoring the importance of selecting an appropriate rebalancing approach.
Higher returns often mean higher risk. ETH is often viewed as a “risk-free” asset in the Ethereum ecosystem, making rebalancing to ETH more appealing to risk-averse investors.
Rebalancing to underweight tokens can be risky, as it involves catching potential “falling knives” that might never recover. Careful consideration is necessary, especially when aiming for high rebalancing frequencies.
For instance, rebalancing at a 1.05x threshold (10.5% of portfolio) would require 680 trades. At an average $10 gas cost on Uniswap, this translates to $6,800 in fees!
At Fyde, we deploy bots and community-driven incentives to automate these trades, allowing you to capture upside without high gas costs. Our Liquid Vaults leverage rebalancing as a key return driver, helping your crypto portfolio grow over time. Use rebalancing to your advantage.